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Picking Up a Dropped Ball

 

 

On October 22 this year, an Afghan soldier shot three Czech troops in a “green-on-blue incident”, killing one.  Afghan security forces captured the shooter and handed him over to the Czechs, who beat him to death.  This was an understandable and in fact morally acceptable alternative to turning the prisoner over to a legal system that has lost the trust of those it ostensibly serves through its inability to deliver justice.

What would have happened had the Czechs turned the man, Wahidullah Khan, over alive to the proper authorities?  He would have been interrogated; the interrogation would determine whether Khan acted on behalf of others or — often happens — for personal reasons.  The problem is what happens next.

“The Right Stuff”, and the Nigerien Ambush

Last week, the commanding general of SOCOM Africa was reprimanded over an October 2017 skirmish/ambush in Niger that left four special forces soldiers dead.  In all likelihood the actual issue is that the incident brought unwanted attention on the American presence in Niger.  Nevertheless, Army’s attitude toward this incident reminds me of Tom Wolfe’s The Right Stuff:

Barely a week had gone by before another member of the Group was coming in for a landing in the same type of aircraft, the A3J, making a ninety-degree turn to his final approach, and something went wrong with the controls, and he ended up with one rear stabilizer wing up and the other one down, and his ship rolled in like a corkscrew from 800 feet up and crashed…after dinner one night they mentioned that the departed had been a good man but was inexperienced, and when the malfunction in the controls put him in that bad corner, he didn’t know how to get out of it.
[…]
Not long after that, another good friend of theirs went up in an F-4, the Navy’s newest and hottest fighter plane, known as the Phantom. He reached twenty thousand feet and then nosed over and dove straight into Chesapeake Bay. It turned out that a hose connection was missing in his oxygen system and he had suffered hypoxia and passed out at the high altitude…How could anybody fail to check his hose connections? And how could anybody be in such poor condition as to pass out that quickly from hypoxia?
[…]
When Bud Jennings crashed and burned in the swamps at Jacksonville, the other pilots in Pete Conrad’s squadron said: How could he have been so stupid? It turned out that  Jennings had gone up in the SNJ with his cockpit canopy opened in a way that was expressly forbidden in the manual, and carbon monoxide had been sucked in from the exhaust, and he passed out and crashed. All agreed that Bud Jennings was a good guy and a good pilot, but his epitaph on the ziggurat was: How could he have been so stupid? This seemed shocking at first, but by the time Conrad had reached the end of that bad string at Pax River, he was capable of his own corollary to the theorem: viz., no single factor ever killed a pilot; there was always a chain of mistakes. But what about Ted Whelan, who fell like a rock from 8,100 feet when his parachute failed? Well, the parachute was merely part of the chain: first, someone should have caught the structural defect that resulted in the hydraulic leak that triggered the emergency; second, Whelan did not check out his seat-parachute rig, and the drogue failed to separate the main parachute from the seat; but even after those two mistakes, Whelan had fifteen or twenty seconds, as he fell, to disengage himself from the seat and open the parachute manually. Why just stare at the scenery coming up to smack you in the face! And everyone nodded. (He failed—but I wouldn’t have!)
–Tom Wolfe, The Right Stuff
Feel free to read the whole thing, it’s worth it.  Anyway, contemporary “flight test”, and later NASA, were organizations with no tolerance for human error.  If cultivating such an attitude required occasionally blaming someone for something that was not, objectively speaking, their fault, well the payoff in effort and vigilance were worth it.  Better to reprimand one innocent man than let two others make avoidable mistakes.

How Far Away is the Short Sun Whorl?

How far did the Whorl in Gene Wolfe’s Long/Short Sun books travel? The author leaves a few hints, although they are ultimately inconclusive.  Fair warning: if you haven’t read the later novels in Wolfe’s Solar Cycle, this will be of little interest to you.

First, here’s a highly relevant passage from In Green’s Jungles.  Silk/Horn discusses how long the Whorl’s journey was, and other characters try to determine how much time has elapsed on Urth since the unruined if rather decadent world remembered by one of the Whorl’s hibernating passengers:

“I only know that it has been about three hundred and fifty years since the Whorl left [Urth].  A bit more than three hundred and fifty, really–three hundred and fifty five, or some such figure.”

 

“There are seven thousand steps in a league…From what I’ve seen here, the streets are seventy or eighty double steps apart.  Say a hundred to be safe.  If Eco’s correct in his estimate, four leagues, they’ve been falling down for about two-thousand, five hundred years.  If your son is, three-quarters of that should be one thousand, nine hundred, unless I’ve made an error”

[…]

“Old though these houses clearly are, I can’t believe they’re as old as that.  No doubt the rate at which they’re abandoned was much higher at one time; but if we accept Cuoio’s estimate and the error is fifty percent, they’re still a thousand years old, roughly.”

So the Whorl traveled for about 350 years.  However, it spent an unknown and possibly significant amount of time parked around the Short Sun — possibly as long as fifty years, about the time the other gods rebelled against Pas and Quetzal entered the Whorl.  Somewhere between 1000 and 2500 years passed on Urth.  Before I go further, I’d like to note something: Gene Wolfe’s Urth is nowhere near as ancient as Jack Vance’s Dying Earth, where the very mountains have worn down to hills.

Anyway: here’s The Relativistic Rocket, which explains in relatively simple terms how to calculate distance, velocity, and time in separate frames given acceleration and other values — which we have.

Some Thoughts on The Short Sun

In my review/exhortation to read of Gene Wolfe’s Book of the Short Sun, I avoided spoilers.  I will not do so here, regarding my thoughts on certain details of these books.

The Book of the Short Sun

Well, I’ve done it.  I’ve finished The Book of the Short Sun and, with it, Gene Wolfe’s “Solar Cycle”.  It was worth it.  The rest of this post will assume that you have read or are at least familiar with The Book of the New Sun The Book of the Short Sun tells the story of a man who strives to fulfill a great vow, perhaps taken too lightly, and changes greatly because of it.

Assuming one has read The Book of the New Sun, I hope to convince you to read the rest of the Solar Cycle.

Believe

Senate Armed Services Committee, 2031

Sen. Cynthia Lederhaut: Admiral, this is the third woman to come forward with similar allegations.  There seems to have been a pattern.

Adm. William B. Norden, Pacific Command: Senator, I flatly deny these allegations.  I’m a married man.  I’ve been a married man for my entire service career.  I’ve never met any of these women. I’ve —

Sen. Lederhaut: But you were in Laem Chabang on the date Ms. Ginting alleges that you attacked her?

Adm. Norden: I have been there, ma’am,.  I’ve been in dozens of ports.  I’m a man of the sea.  I couldn’t tell you the exact date off the top of my head.

Sen. Lederhaut: But you do remember you never went into the Paupau Sports Bar?

Adm. Norden: I don’t recall, ma’am, no.  It’s standard for ships’ officers to conduct a walk-through of bars where the sailors might be going.  I’ve been in hundreds of these establishments.  But I certainly never assaulted anyone.

Sen. Lederhaut: And no one ever assaulted a local woman?  This seems to have been a problem.  Maybe still is a problem.

Adm Norden: Well, occasionally we do have sailors commit crimes while ashore, unfortunately — they also commit them at sea and at home, I would add.  But they are punished to the full extent of military law.

Sen. Lederhaut: Back to the subject: how do you account for Ms. Ginting’s accusations?  And Ms. Ocampo?  Ms. Reyes?  Maybe there was a misunderstanding?  Maybe they mistook you for someone else?

Adm. Norden: I suppose they might be mistaken, Senator.  I suppose they might also be lying.

Sen. Lederhaut: Did they all get together and make this up?  Is it a conspiracy?

Adm. Norden: When the impossible has been eliminated, whatever remains — however implausible — is the truth.

Sen. Lederhaut: And these allegations are impossible?

Underrated: The Light of Other Days

Worried about pervasive surveillance?  About how much ammunition your 7th-grade MySpace posts and AIM logs will provide to the opposition when you run for office, or interview for a job?  Check out the highly underrated The Light of Other Days, joint venture of science fiction giants Arthur C. Clarke and Stephen Baxter.

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How Effective Were Civil War Rifles?

The armies of the American Civil War fought (mostly) with muzzle-loading rifles.  The expanding Minie ball allowed muzzle-loaded rifles to fire at the same rate as smoothbore muskets.  Rifled muskets had existed for hundreds of years previously, but rifling required a tight seal between bullet and bore to work and so loading a rifle meant hammering the bullets down inside instead of just dropping it.  The Minie ball fell freely down a rifle barrel, then expanded against barrel grooves when fired.

This made bullets more accurate.  How much did this contribute to the bloodshed?  In Battle Tactics of the Civil War, Paddy Griffith proposes that it made little difference.  Griffith’s overall thesis is that the Civil War was the last of the Napoleonic wars, not the first of the modern wars.  Regarding the alleged impact of rifled muskets, he basically makes the following claims:

1. Increased length of battles, not improved weapon effects, drove casualty rates.  Civil War soldiers didn’t die in such large numbers because rifle fire was more lethal, but because because they fought longer.

2. Documentary evidence, while sketchy, suggests that the actual engagement range of Civil War rifle infantry units was no higher than of Napoleonic smoothbore infantry, and this fire was no more effective (see above).

3. Whatever the theoretical capability of Civil War rifles, soldiers lacked either the training or experience necessary to exploit it.

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Chart from Griffith’s book comparing the Civil War to the unquestionably “modern” WWI and Napoleon’s campaigns.

These assertions might be true.  The rifled musket didn’t need to significantly improve the killing power of infantry fire to have a tactical effect.  I believe that above any improvement in killing power, rifles enabled Civil War units to deliver suppressing fire effectively in a manner that was not possible with smoothbore muskets.

Griffith’s Assertions Are Not Ridiculous

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I have this rifle, an M1903, sighted at 100 yards.  I fire at a target 400 yards away.  Based on intuition, how far does the bullet fall below my sight?

Small UAS & Supply Constraints

Just as firearms require ammunition and vehicles require fuel, small unmanned systems (SUAS, even if the “A” does stand for “air”) require electrical power.  This allows us to make some predictions about the capabilities and tactics of small units with SUAS.

Tradeoffs & Alertness

SUAS and their power supplies have weight and volume.  Since the capacity of any transport (including soldiers’ own two feet) is limited, either future SUAS will take up currently “extra” capacity, or they will replace something currently carried.

Soldiers can eat their boots, but tanks need gas.

General George S. Patton

Like fuel and ammunition, unit leaders must recognize SUAS operating time as a finite commodity to be expended for tactical effect.  A unit equipped with multiple SUAS platforms will not have them all on at the same time for the same reason they don’t keep their soldiers awake, run vehicles, or fire machine guns 24 hours a day.  Generally, a unit’s SUAS will either be “inert”, “alert”, or “engaged” — offline while the unit is either not threatened or covered by another unit, minimally operating to maintain awareness and detect threats, or at maximum capacity to neutralize a threat.  This is exactly analogous to existing tactics and not difficult to understand.

The default “alert” SUAS will most likely be a fixed-wing flier, since these provide the most efficient power to operating time ratio.  Ground vehicles (SUGS?) could have an even higher ratio since they wouldn’t need motor power when not moving, and might be an option for static units or to absolutely minimize aerial/EM footprints.  However, they’ll be slower and easier to hide from.  Note that the RQ-11 Raven is probably too large for a true light infantry platoon and certainly too large for a squad.

RavenGimbal.jpg

Get used to this thing.

Limitations

The tradeoff problem is most pronounced for light infantry.  In general, these men carry as much as they can and not a pound less.  Any “excess” load capacity ends up filled by extra ammunition.  How much and what sort of ammunition a light infantry company, platoon, or squad ought to give up in favor of SUAS is an empirical question, but I highly doubt the answer is zero.  Most likely, the lightest units will mostly use SUAS for detection and rely on external assets to kill, as they do now with artillery.  Since the detection capability of SUAS-equipped units will increase, the ratio of infantry to “artillery” will likewise increase.

dismount_ew

The future is so bright for carrying heavy shit, you don’t need eyes to see it.

Armored units also have a problem.  First, the effective movement and weapon ranges of armored fighting vehicles are higher than light infantry, so their “small” unmanned systems will generally be larger.  A SUAS with a 5-km range is of limited use to a tank that can already see and shoot nearly that far, and is more likely located in unrestrictive terrain.

The more critical problem is that of crew load.  Fighting a tank requires all of the crew’s attention; they don’t have any to spare for SUAS.  While automation and control might allow this in the future, the problem is nontrivial.  These two issues have frustrated attempts to integrate SUAS into mechanized and especially tank formations so far.  In the short term, any integration of unmanned systems into armored units will probably require the use of a separate, dedicated control vehicle.  In the long term, designers will have to start paying as much attention to crew load and systems integration inside fighting vehicles as in aircraft.

Motor-rifle type units (such as “Stryker” brigades) are best suited to take advantage of SUAS.  They have ready access to electrical power and transport.  Designers clearly anticipated something like this requirement in developing modern troop carriers, which can readily serve as mobile control stations.

Tactical Electronic Warfare

EM emissions discipline will become both more important and more complex.  The likelihood of initial enemy contact being made on either or both side via identification of SUAS will be high.  Small-unit commanders and soldiers should know the significance of enemy small unmanned platforms just as they now know the significance of other types of enemy equipment.

antenna_truck

A stopgap solution, gluing lots of antennas to a completely roadbound vehicle.

Mature SUAS will be well camouflaged and probably most easily identified through detecting their control and communication links.  The ability to detect EM emissions across a broad spectrum will become as important even at the platoon if not the squad level as image intensifiers and near-infrared are now.  Tactical electronic warfare units that specialize in detecting, spoofing, and obstructing these emissions beyond the capability of line combat units will return.  The resulting arms race between tactical unmanned systems and electronic warfare will contribute to the unsuitability of amateur/civilian UAVs in combat.

Conclusion

Motorized infantry stand to gain the most from small unmanned systems because of their manpower and transport capability.  Light infantry have limited payload, and current armored units are too specialized.

Officers should get used to viewing SUAS operating time as a supply constraint, and  establish standard readiness postures for stand-down, baseline, and stand-to use of these devices.

Electronic warfare will become more important at all tactical levels.

The Magus, First-Person, & The Greatness of Gene Wolfe

John Fowles’s The Magus long ago caught my eye on some Top 100 Great Novels list because I hoped it would be about a wizard in the Gandalf sense and remained intrigued by the premise when I found out otherwise.  While it is indeed a Great Novel, it’s not about the Istari.  However, as many things do, it got me thinking about Gene Wolfe’s Book of the New Sun.

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Warning: there is an image at the bottom of this post that spoils many things about both books

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