Author: sfoil Page 3 of 7

How Small Drones Will Be Different

A remote-operated aircraft flown into a target while the operator watches not only isn’t something new, but it’s already been done in volume and found wanting.  An apparent attempt to assassinate the President of Venezuela by such means last month didn’t work.

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Some guy scraped up after an attempted murder-by-drone.

A drone that can fly at 200mph for three kilometers, operated over an ECM-hardened control link, and delivering a 5+ lb armor-piercing explosive warhead has existed for ovr fifty years now.  The AT-3 Sagger came, made its impact, and we all moved on.  Visually flying your remote-controlled aircraft into a target is called Manual Command Line of Sight, and it’s not used for anything important (more discussion here).  Small autonomous systems will change the battlefield, but flying a much smaller payload onto a target over a less secure control channel than primitive missiles is not going to be how it happens.  Hit probability and kill probability are low, with high vulnerability to electronic countermeasures.  Taping a grenade to your kid’s toy helicopter won’t going to give you the edge you need to win on tomorrow’s battlefield.  The characteristics of such a line-of-sight weapon compare poorly to the currently dominant line of sight personal weapon, the rifle.

Anyway, what will change?  The important factors are availability & control.

“Armor” and the Holy Trinity of Mil-SF

I’m not into military science fiction.  Hammer’s Slammers?  I’ve heard of it.  Honor Harrington?  Never read it.  Some guy named Marko Kloos got into some sort of spat.  A distaste for open-ended series accounts for more than a bit of my aversion, though, so if I’m going to dip my toe into the subgenre, it’s through standalone books.  The three milSF books that everyone should read, so I’m told, are Starship Troopers by Robert Heinlein, The Forever War by Joe Haldeman, and Armor by John Steakley.

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Nuclear Deterrents Probably Don’t Work the Same for City-States

Because decapitation strikes are too easy, or at least too dangerous.  A large country can mitigate this threat through dispersal of strike/retaliation capability, and by building early warning systems.  However, early warning only really works reliably when a strike can be detected a substantial amount of time (“a few minutes”) before it takes effect.

This is the logic behind bans on orbital weapons (de-orbiting weapons given less warning than ballistic weapons) and on the mutual withdrawal of nuclear weapons from Cuba and Turkey at the resolution of the Cuban Missile Crisis.  This is also the game theory logic behind countries like South Korea and Taiwan effectively outsourcing their nuclear deterrent to the United States. In The Dead Hand, David Hoffman quotes Zbigniew Brzezinski as saying that after detection, initial cross-checking, and message delay, the President has about seven minutes from launch to impact of a Russian (Soviet) ICBM to decide whether or not to order retaliation.  That window might have gotten slightly larger since the 1980s, but not by much.  The United States’ (and other existing powers’) nuclear strike capability is sufficiently dispersed not to be neutralized by local subterfuge, and highly likely to survive a a first strike.  This further reduced the likelihood of a launch on false-positive early warning.

“Hanoi’s War” by Lien-Hang T. Nguyen

Lien-Hang Nguyen used unprecedented access to Hanoi’s governmental archives to write her 2012 book Hanoi’s War, a political history of the Vietnam War from the northern perspective focused on two powerful key figures in the North Vietnamese government, Le Duan and Le Duc Tho — the most powerful man in the northern government and his protege and chief negotiator, respectively.  The book had less insight into northern military operations than I’d hoped, but it’s still an excellent if somewhat preliminary work and I eagerly await Nguyen’s next major work.

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Fantasy Justice and the Great Frontier

The backwater setting and approving attitude towards “frontier justice” in Jack Vance’s Araminta Station reminded me of Robert Heinlein’s Future History books, and criticisms of science fiction as authoritarian, statist, and parochial in general.  While some authors do have authoritarian or anti-democratic ideas that they incorporate into their work, mostly these works express a longing to re-open the wild frontier, combined with a limited scope.  As the memory of frontier exploration fades from collective memory, more stories turn inward to find a source of narrative conflict.

Default vs Doctrine

The simple reason for monarchy and other forms of personal rule recurring so often in speculative fiction is just that: simplicity.  One guy is in charge because he was born that way, or might as well have been.  He’s got some ministers of varying degrees of goodness and competence, and if someone wants to rearrange the org chart, the have a simple objective: the king.

Taking things a little further, history and political theory have much to say about the merits of a benevolent dictatorship  — Plato’s philosopher-kings, or the enlightened monarchs of the Renaissance.  Indeed the principal drawback — succession — ready-makes the story: the noble protagonist must assume his rightful place in order to assure the continuance of Good.  And not every story need concern itself with the mechanics of government.  A.E. van Vogt, for instance, just didn’t give much thought to the subject other than “someone in charge lives in a big castle”.  Tolkien, antiquarian that he was, had philosophical and aesthetic reasons to recall the kings of yore in his stories, though his imitators again probably didn’t give the issue too much thought.  Kings ruled in the Hyborian Age of Robert Howard; the Conan stories both intending to portray a vanished mythical age and not conducive to arguments before the Althing.

Some authors really do have a low opinion of the common man.  The Deep State antics of the “good guys” in E.E. Smith’s Triplanetary make the quick-shooting interstellar police of Araminta look like the Warren Court.  Other times the author simply wants to make a point about the relationship between government, technology, and context.  Frank Herbert’s Dune portrays feudalism as an effective solution to the governance of multiple planets bound by poor communication, something Poul Anderson also did a few years prior in The High Crusade.  However, the Future History & Gaean Reach settings of Heinlein & Vance respectively don’t indulge in either default or doctrinaire monarchy.  Both, in fact, deal pretty extensively with the mechanics of governance & social class.  Yet both exult in swift, sure enforcement of extrajudicial justice.

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In the service of the Queen

Escaping the Clutches of Civilization

The glorification of summary personal justice reflects a wish to escape civilization to conquer and settle a frontier.  This latter impulse is particularly American, and in fact for a long time largely defined “American”.  After the census of 1890 famously declared an end to the American frontier, the country spent several generations ruminating, reliving, and glorifying the legacy of its frontier settlement, most visibly via the genre of the Western, although it influenced early science fiction as well, with authors viewing space exploration literally as a final (and hopefully infinite) frontier.

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This, but IN SPACE.

Space would provide an escape from oppressive attempts to render society “legible” to control and taxation, attempts made easier not merely by technology but by population density and sheer age.  Authors like Heinlein and Frank Herbert even posited a eugenic effect: frontier settlement selected for adventure and individualism; old sedentary societies selected for conformity and stagnation.

Migration is a sorting device, a forced Darwinian selection, under which superior stock goes to the stars while culls stay home and die.
This is true even for those forcibly transported (as in the twenty-fourth and twenty-fifth centuries), save that the sorting then takes place on the new planet. In a raw frontier weaklings and misfits die; strong stock survives. Even those who migrate voluntarily still go through this second drastic special selection.

Even authors who shied away from eugenic arguments, like Isaac Asimov and Arthur C. Clarke, suggested space settlement would at least spread humanity’s eggs around several baskets.

The swift, community-sanctioned and personally-dispensed justice required by the comparatively lawless frontier definitely appealed to anyone who felt the courts of settled regions to be slow, unfair, or unjust.  Some of this might be naive, but to confuse it with authoritarianism or bloodlust badly misses the mark.

The Best of Both Worlds

Heinlein and Vance both took advantage of their authorial prerogative to eliminate the uglier aspects of American frontier settlement — in neither the Future History nor the Gaean Reach settings do settlers need to exterminate natives, institute repressive militarized governments, or participate in the flesh trade in order to survive and prosper.  (Vance does show more cynicism here than Heinlein.)  And prosperity comes easily enough — unlike the hand-to-mouth ranchers of Elmer Kelton’s Westerns, the settlers of the future want for very little.  Lazarus Long decries the precarity of his existence while living in an opulent Roman villa with his harem on a virgin planet; the backwater Mircea’s Wisp of Araminta Station provides recognizably modern First World conditions to most of its inhabitants, while the government has just enough reach to keep things from getting out of hand without Glawen Clattuc having to spend the rest of the trilogy giving sworn statements and depositions about a police shooting at a remote monastery.

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Not what they had in mind

Swift summary justice is not one of the aspects of frontier living that Vance or Heinlein eliminate when creating their worlds.  Cutting the red tape on law enforcement isn’t an ugly aspect of the lawless frontier but one of its benefits.  Even when the heroes do bother to try their enemies’ crimes in court, the proceedings run far more smoothly than their real-world counterparts.  The trial portrayed in Araminta Station runs about a page.

In any case, the portrayal of summary justice in Vance’s Cadwal Chronicles, like that of Heinlein in his future history, reflects a desire to escape from oppression rather than to extend it — along with an understanding that such an escape means dispensing with certain aspects of civilization.  A severance made all the easier by suspicions about whether settled definitions of due process really equated to ideal justice.

 

“Araminta Station” by Jack Vance

Jack Vance published Araminta Station in 1988, 38 years after his first major work, the massively influential Dying EarthAraminta Station, the first part of the Cadwal Chronicles trilogy, narrates the adventures of Glawen Clattuc, a young man of the local gentry on a wilderness-preserve planet — Cadwal — in a distant future where mankind has settled most of the galaxy in a loosely-governed “Gaean Reach”.  Vance writes in his characteristic style with the assurance and deliberation of a well-earned maturity.  Do I recommend it?  Absolutely, although it’s not a good place to start with the author and doesn’t quite rise to the level of Vance’s immediately preceding work, Lyonesse.

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Harry Potter and Millennials

Why do Millennials like Harry Potter?  Maybe because if you give J.K. Rowling the boy, she will give you the man.  Whatever the higher merits of the books, they initially got popular because middle-schoolers liked The Sorcerer’s Stone.  In what any fantasy aficionado recognizes as a considerable feat, Rowling then managed to maintain a steady, coherent output throughout our formative years.  And then the movies.  If the well has gone a bit dry since The Deathly Hallows Part II — things could be a lot worse.

This line of thought has some allure, and no small amount of explanatory power.  But it’s also survivorship bias.  Why not The Edge Chronicles, or His Dark Materials?

Because Harry Potter has Relevance — it reflects the actual world seen in a way that other fantasy works did not. Specifically, Harry Potter presents an idealization of an inward-looking, academically-focused technocratic bureaucracy.  This reflected the world of middle-class Millennial children, and continues to describe the ideal world of older fans.

The ATGM Threat Part 3: Solutions

I’ve previously posted about the history of antiarmor weapons and the current state-of-the-art.  The takeaway: tanks have never been invulnerable, and they don’t need to be.  Also, Anti-Tank Guided Missiles have become and are becoming longer-ranged, more accurate, and more lethal.  Despite improvements in ATGM technology over first-generation weapons like the AT-3 Sagger, American tactics have remained essentially unchanged for decades, although armor protection has improved.

The ATGM threat profile is a combination of standoff and high kill probability (per launch).  Remember, these don’t have to make ATGMs completely worthless, just make them less useful.  I’ll look at standoff first.

The ATGM Threat Part 2: Early Countermeasures & Modern Developments

In the last post, I recounted the history of antiarmor weapons up to the development of the anti-tank guided missile (ATGM).  Now I’ll look at early countermeasures, and how well they hold up now.

Tactical Countermeasures

As stated previously, ATGMs allowed standoff both for aircraft and ground troops against armored vehicles.  The Israelis, facing these weapons for the first time in 1973, struggled to counter the new threat of the AT-3 Sagger ATGM.  The Yom Kippur War only lasted about three weeks, so all combatants were stuck with the equipment they had at the outset with no time to develop or even purchase new weapons.  With no hope of a technical solution, the IDF settled on three basic tactics: suppression, evasion, and obscuration.

The ATGM Threat Pt 1: A Brief History of Anti-Armor Weapons

Right now, I think that anti-armor weapons have gained an upper hand over tanks and other armored vehicles, and that the United States is falling behind in anti-anti-armor measures.  They can take several courses to correct this.  First, however, I want to lay out the history of the threat and how the current situation developed.

The First Tanks

Although it wasn’t the first battle in which tanks took part, the Battle of Cambrai in 1917 is the first major combined arms attack with a significant armored component, the use of armored vehicles beforehand having been relatively piecemeal.  Together with the infantry of the 51st Highland Division, 476 British armored vehicles took part, of which 350 were combat vehicles (the rest were supply carriers and mobile radio stations, with perhaps some engineers in the mix).  The attack succeeded, although as usual in the First World War the attackers proved unable to exploit their gains over the following days.

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